Hetzner Price Adjustment

People love to say how great these big clouds are, until they discover they've been paying ten times the market price outside of crises.

There is not a snowballs chance in hell that MS or Amazon isn't charging you at your absolute pain tolerance. As that tolerance goes up because the baseline of the market raises prices, the "hyperscalers" will too, but tenfold.

There is no price stability to be found with MS.

I think you're making a false comparison. Big cloud providers have many more hidden config settings they can tune to save costs, they are not offering dedicated server with specific hardware. Hetzner's dedicated servers have a specific hardware configuration that you are contractually obligated to.

Hah..... we recently had to buy a couple hundred 16GB DDR5 RDIMM for a few new servers and i wish it was only 280 pounds.... Double it and you are close....

> This is the real risk after the slow death of personal computing.

By the time you can have a slow death of personal computing, capacity will improve and prices will improve.

In the shorter term sitting on an old computer or regressing a couple years on specs or paying an extra $100/$200 for 8GB/16GB works.

> Even internet resources like servers will be hoarded by the hyperscalers that are the only ones who can afford to order years of compute hardware in advance.

I don't see why hyperscalers would be so much better at handling price increases.

For some average business paying a week's wages for the computer you use, they can afford that doubling to two weeks just fine.

For all the normal server rental companies, okay the guy on the $10 plan either pays $16 now or cuts their resource allocation and keeps paying $10. That's not going to cause a sea change. And higher end hosting isn't that much different.

I work on a desktop, but as a backup I have bought a refurbished Dell Latitude, there are a lot of decent ones for €250 on eBay. Put Linux on it, it’s good enough for most workloads.

I just hope my top shelf 2020-era desktop doesn’t die on me because it would get very expensive to get a new build these days.

> This is the real risk after the slow death of personal computing.

This.

People tend to take things for granted, but the world we've grown up with is not guaranteed to live forever, in twenty years personal computing could look like the personal CD or video tapes collection of the 90s-00s: a thing of the past for most people.

If the hyperscalers demand is persistent, more hardware players will notice and will want a piece of the pie. You already see non traditional players entering.

But what you see is a cautious strategy from the existing players. They are hedging against a bubble. They don’t want to pour today tens of billions of dollars in capacity that they will have to sell it to a deflated market

Is everyone forgetting that even hyper scaler hardware has a finite service life that isn't that long as hardware continues to rapidly improve?

In a few years the second hand market will be flooded

This is a market shock. The reason it doesn't alleviate sooner is the chip manufacturers are very wary of investing billions on capacity that won't come online until after the shock is over and subsequently going bankrupt. Because that's happened before.

IF IT LASTS, capacity will increase.

But it won't last. The AI boom is in exponential growth but it's based on heavy speculation about future value and the bubble will absolutely pop, how agressively depends on how dumb people are about now. The current growth may or may not be entirely justified but it's not sustainable, the free investor money does run out. These back and forth self-dealing deals where companies that own big pieces of each other announce "partnerships" where companies are selling resources essentially to themselves and counting the revenue several times... those are a sign of the approaching peak.

How do these prices compare to buying a PC in the early 90s?

> I’ve already started buying cheap old business PCs just in case I’ll ever need to have simple barebones machines to run things on.

Hmmmm...

That's a bit dramatic. I did buy a few SSDs when RAM prices started going up for I didn't want to be facing a shortage of SSDs but China is already very busy at producing cheap server motherboards: gone are the days where he only option for a server motherboard was a $1000 one. There are ultra cheap, and fully functional, chinese motherboards now.

I'm totally convinced China is not going to sit doing nothing: if RAM prices goes up and there's a business opportunity, China is going to seize it and start producing lots of RAM.

We did see "RAM price quadruple in no time so nobody had time to adapt", that's for sure.

But I'm really not sure it's "RAM prices goes 4x and then the world stays as it is and nobody adapts for decades to come".

Also as to used servers: people ordering years of compute hardware in advance aren't hoarding five years old servers.

Heck, a ten years old Xeon machine is plenty capable and the usual people are buying stocks of those (from companies updating their fleet), refurbishing them and reselling them one by one on the usual marketplace, at the same prices (OK maybe instead of 150 EUR it's now 200 EUR if there's 64 GB of ECC RAM).

My usual seller is doing its business as usual although we're well into the memory craze.

Just to put things into perspective: the "PC sales crash" from 2021 to 2024 saw, what, a 20% drop, 10% of which already recovered. In 4 years more than a billion PCs were produced.

A PC is not a rare thing. We won't run out of PCs, just like we won't run out of cheap used ten years old Xeon servers.

But OK you got me: I may contact my seller and hoard two or three more just in case.

Sheesh is HN full of paranoid people and, darn, is it contagious.

And I was told my whole life that capitalism solved everything through supply and demand magic.

I wish I could say I am disappointed.

Sadly this is not a joke nor some doomsday thinking. Google recently repurposed thousands of phones for server needs. Why? Well guess why… to teach everyone tis coming.

Do you believe there are many enough of these at scale to make any meaningful impact?

The vast majority of personal projects are not built by those receiving FAANG salaries.

I wonder what the effect of "move services to Europe ASAP" is on this.

It’s also trivial to use now. With AI, there’s no meaningful additional work in using a VM.

I don't think any VPS provider has come close to raising their prices this much. There's absolutely not enough people flocking to Hetzner to justify this.

We increased our prices - for the first time in 21 years - last week.

The increase was 25% and was, of course, mainly due to hard drive prices.

Egress pricing? That's one of their highest margin products! Compute is the one that's being squeezed!

A ton of cloud workloads are still running on old Haswell-era CPUs with RAM that was bought a decade+ ago. Probably the costs will be made up with new VM shapes.

Graviton 5 is 9% more expensive than previous generation https://www.theregister.com/paas-and-iaas/2026/06/11/gravito... which isnt strictly an increase but shows direction.

> GCP recently increased their egress pricing

The peering announcement or did I miss something?

I doubt this has to do with the hardware discussion. This is just them increasing their lock-in and trying to curb businesses running to other CDNs (whole point of the peering).

AWS now has unmetered egress, but it's pretty expensive. A 10G port is $8k a month.

We use Vultr, DigitalOcean and Hetzner for global coverage. Vultr is by far the worst - some DC like Australia are pretty bad, lots of connectivity issues, some are OK. Their forte is that they offer a lot of DCs. We are migrating some workloads back to DO, where things are usually way smoother. Hetzner is our core, but does not offer DCs in Asia, Africa or Latam.

When I used them the main issue was latency spikes due to their IP ranges getting DDoSd. They host a lot of shady/spam sites.

I have a Vultr account but it's very lightly used. Came recommended by Derek Sivers^1

1. https://sive.rs/ti

I spend about $100/month with Vultr. The uptime in the datacenters my VMs are hosted in is extremely good.

I use it as a hosting target for automated deployment tooling we wrote. Tools were originally Digitalocean-only and I wondered if LLMs could add support for a second provider, so asked Claude to add Vultr which it did very nicely. But other than run the automated tests (which create VMs, DNS entries, check validity and tear down) and pay the monthly bill, we haven't yet used them for production deployments.

Well, that's really the final humiliation for Azure, isn't it.

They sell it to us.

I’m not a business person, but they’re already at the “hundreds of thousands of servers” scale, what about the 41st data center be organizationally far more expensive than the first 40?

doesn't this imply that they buy massive hardware and thus replace their hardware constantly? At what rate? It seems the rate is massive. I'd gladly use a 4year old server for the old price.

These prices have absolute nothing to do anymore with memory prices. Do not forget that Hetzner already increased the setup fees by a factor of 4x before to compensate for the price. And also servers getting price increases.

It seems they have shifted by reducing the setup fees, and increasing the monthly costs. As this generates more revenue. And its easy to prove this...

AX42 ... Its 8700GE that has gone from 65 Euro to 225 Euro. With the setup fee now being 112 Euro instead of 225 Euro. It has 64GB memory, and 1TB storage. The storage even in todays market is 100 Euro. The memory is 644 Euro.

Do the math ... Hetzner servers had a hardware payback periode of between 9 to 11 month if you took the market value. This calculation has always been very stable over the 20 years i used Hetzner.

This new price, reduced the hardware payback periode to ~4 month. It seems to be that Hetzer is trying to use the memory price issues, as a excuse. The revenue of those same servers now increased to a insane level. More revenue with less hardware.

The real issue is that a lot of companies are moving from US hosting to EU hosting because of the problems with the US. Hetzner sees this as the perfect time to cash in on Enterprise customers.

They have been trying to replace the "cheap" normal consumers with enterprise. This trend has been going on for a while already.

Every customer that now leaves, is a server they can rent out to business customers.

If you want to see the same thing, look up what happened to Microsoft/Github Copilot where they turn around has been sudden and very strong, with a clear goal of moving everything to enterprise.

Its not only RAM. I have seen people who are vibe coding their app and instead of choosing Vercel as default they are learning about dedicated server hosting, docker etc and moving to providers like Hetzner. This is why whenever someone says - with AI everyone is going to write their own SaaS, I am always like - and what happens to hosting? Even Vercel might increase their costs if that comes to pass.

It's a bit higher than 4 now.

[dead]

There is no AI bubble

There is an engineered scarcity, billion dollar companies can't ramp up production?

Murica is stuck depending on the good will of Korea and China for thinking rocks? le fucking mao

Just out of curiosity, which parts of AWS were you using? EC2 and something else?

It's very simple to move when you're just using AWS as a source for VPS capacity, but when you've got lambda functions, S3, SQS, RDS and other nice acronyms in the mix the ditching becomes a lot harder to justify.

Problem with Scaleway (for me) is physics. I get 200ms (at minimum) roundtrip latency to any of their EU servers (and for their dedicated offerings that can boot custom Linux distros that's pretty much all I have access to).

didn't Scaleway also increase prices 1st of this month?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47944914

Which plan? Because even with this hetzner price increase it's still 2-3x cheaper than scaleway.

Yes, but Hetzner is not "some low-end provider". They have proper, high-quality datacenters with all the redundancy you want, excellent connectivity, great service, and much better privacy controls than any American company would be legally able to provide. Hetzner also offers instant scalability and has Terraform and Ansible support for infrastructure automation.

We have some VMs on Azure and some on Hetzner, and the latter have much better performance (especially since they give you basically infinite IOPS, which matters a lot for your database) and connectivity (especially lower latency).

The large hyperscalers were ever only worth it if you need/want all the additional PaaS infrastructure they provide, like Lambda, SQS and so on.

Hetzner has a decent terraform provider btw

Server auctions are more expensive than last month, I feel like 50% more at a minimum.

No, this is the same prize increase. The post from 38 days ago was the announcement this one will come, now it is active.

Not for me at least, I had to fire up the console and try creating a new server.

I run a few stats site for a video game, and the overall hosting right now is ~€220 on Hetzner for a AX51-NVMe + AX61-NVMe + some extra SSDs + HDDs --- so that's the same price as just a AX42-1 in the new pricing model which is insane. If one of the servers goes down I'd need to likely shut down one of the projects or massively change the architecture.

There's always lowendbox.com but Hetzner was more reliable than most of those vendors.

Which package is your 9€ one? The root server start at 13€ - maybe they price hiked already? Netcups vServers aren't really comparable to the CCX13 of Hetzner, as they have no guaranteed resources - those will be the root server on Netcups side.

I was interested in Netcup for their dedicated-core vservers (they call them "root servers" although it is a kvm instance on bare metal - probably overprovisioned so also not really dedicated cores). What is your overall experience with them?

US customers have much higher budgets (startup funding) and create much more hassle (wars, tariffs, overall humiliation) than European customers. It's a bold decision but they are apparently seeing a lot of demand and I'd say let the American customers pay for the costs they are causing. Call it symbolic "freedom fee" and they're happy about it.

Salaries

Proliant G12 was introduced end of 2024, and based on their previous lifecycle I guess they will at least last 3-5 years before a new line comes.

Hetzner is almost exclusively offering consumer-grade hardware.

It's old servers they have already written off and would otherwise decommission. You're basically only paying for power and network traffic.

This is Hetzner's third increase this year. Not seeing any sort of similar levels of recurring price hikes from the other big vps providers.

Don't forget to count your EBS and egress fees when you make your AWS spreadsheet.

They do, as long as possible and for free. Some comments said if they can't source replacement parts they may force you to change server. I wonder if they'll still grandfather your discount in that case.

Seems the driver is DDR5 memory, DDR4 servers are not affected from my quick look.

That's good to know. Still, I'm stuck on that little instance. Scaling it means an exorbitant price increase. I would just leave for another provider at that point - and maybe that's what they're going for. They're not kicking people out immediately but making it uncomfortable to stay.

I would hypothesize that there's a lot more customer churn at the lower price points than there is in the higher tiers and when you get into dedicated servers. You're dealing with people who spin up a cheap VPS, mess around with it for a while and then delete it. Or maybe the kinds of customers whose payment card expires and they don't bother to update it because they're not using that $7 VPS for that little pet project they forgot about. Payments fail and then the VPS runs for a few more weeks before they finally have to delete it due to non-payment.

Higher prices filter out the unserious people who are a higher risk for churn. What they're left with is bigger customers with bigger footprints who lock in long term rates.

Of course, this is pure speculation on my part.

A better analogy is renting a car, and then jacking up prices for existing rentals, rather than just new ones.

What are you talking about? They have plenty of dedicated servers available at the click of a button...

I don't think anyone can guarantee anything here, but I am going to bet that they will be a better-priced alternative.

So far I haven't had any trouble, and they have servers right where I need them.

Are more plants coming? I think I heard it won't be many of them, because it's risky.

If the bubble bursts and RAM demand drops, then they'll have big losses. And that's not an impossible scenario over the few X years that it takes to build a plant

Also worth noting:

They sold their allocations to people who don't have a clear path to profitability, and were paid with massive amounts of money that don't exist in reality.

The current pricing isn't sustainable, and if you try to wring out the maximum amount of profit, you're gonna have competition spring up. The Chinese are probably salivating at this opportunity. Previously they would've had to sell memory at discount rates to get anyone to switch over to them, but now they'd have customers lined up for years if they were selling at the prices Samsung/Micron/SK Hynix were selling a year ago.

I needed to spin up a tiny little logging server this morning. Someone on Reddit recommended Datalix, so I'm trying their €2.50/mo VPS.

Contabo price hasn't changed. I'm thinking of locking in some more VPS before it goes up.

Interesting over the price increase rollover now the setup fee is around 110 euros.

The machine itself is basically useless for any type of realtime inference, no matter what the marketing page states, but I still use it for prototyping LLM integrations and running comparisons across MoE models.

If only the alternatives to framework desktop wouldn't be so poorly built, I might swap it out for a local machine which has more ram but comparable performance for stuff like gpt-oss-20b (around 70tok/s)

They've tripled on "cloud servers" (shared hardware) as well.

Is there anything to suggest these increases are reflecting the increased baseline price of RAM, GPUs, etc?

I mean don't get me wrong, this for sure is a factor but like others said, other services don't see such drastic price hikes.

The link goes halfway down the page so many people won't have scrolled up to the top.

Was looking into a ram upgrade and the kit is 4x what it was even a year ago. I'm with you on this one

Sure would be nice if we got to see any of that, instead of it all going solely to resource guzzling data centres selling opaque models whilst simultaneously destroying the pricing for local hardware!

> We are basically saying we have Trillions to spend over the next 5 years. Give me everything you have got.

We are saying AI companies have trillions to spend over the next 5 years on infrastructure, based on servicing a hypothetical TAM that includes large amounts of workers who it also expects to displace.

One of these two things can be true.

> The AI Boom pushed a lot of technology forward by at least 2 - 3 years or 1 cycle.

Untrue. Technology has been evolving perfectly fine for the last 50 years. If anything it has slowed down lately due to getting close to the physical limits - which were reached without any AI whatsoever. We were getting insane gains in clock speed and memory capacity some 20 odd years ago, it's not the case any more.

> We are basically saying we have Trillions to spend over the next 5 years.

No we don't, inflation tells you that loud and clear. If the Fed wanted to really take care of the raging (but under-reported) inflation, they'd have to raise interest rates a lot more but that would kill the pump-up operation of the AI market bubble. So the Fed is sitting on their hands.

> Give me everything you have got.

That figures. I'm pretty sure you're never going to say "We're giving you everything we've got". The asset pump works only one way - up, trickle down is for losers. You see, the trillionares aren't waiting for the bright future, they're grabbing all they can right now, only the peons are forced to "give everything they've got" while on a steady diet of hallucinations which can never materialize.

The railroad bubble and the dotcom bubble feature prominently as disastrous misallocations of capital in one of my favorite books: "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation."

Pitching AI as in the same vein is a very dark prognostication. As in, probably going to cause a wreck so bad we won't see breakeven in our lifetimes. The railroad bubble and the dotcom bust were generational economic calamities. For Gen X and Millenials, combine that with the 2008 GFC and it's been nonstop waves of speculation-driven disaster drowning us our whole lives.

The comparison with the internet is not valid, and I can immediately give you one reason. I was there (3000 years ago) when the internet was in its infancy. When the dot com bubble was going on, the internet was a fringe thing for most people. People didn't really use it, didn't know how to use it, didn't trust it (for purchases, for information). The investors were still right, but they were too ahead of their time, by almost a decade.

AI is not like that today already, both by common people or by companies. They're using AI at capacity. Demand is higher than supply. Not the other way around, like it was for the internet.

I could barely exist in Shanghai when I visited it for a week earlier this year. The surveillance is suffocating. With all my disdain towards the way the West is going, the level of control and freedom can't be compared. Especially if you've ever experienced freedom taken from you (unfortunately, I have).

    > In China you have clean streets and low crime

Finland and Taiwan has all of that with the added bonus of no Great Firewall of the Internet.

There are many places in the West with clean streets and low crime that don't use China's economic or political model.

Social credit bonus for wild unfounded claims online is probably nice if you live in the top 5 megacities.

[flagged]

He wasn't just a software enginer — he was also a true innovator.

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Because the alternative is admitting the main upside so far is: a few VCs and early employees get yacht money while everyone else gets a gate-kept chatbot and constant fear mongering. But hey, I guess we all have our own opinion of "upside".

They didn't say a word about "our profession". Where is the upside for humanity? Everyone is bearing the cost of hardware going up 4x. Anyone purchasing a computer feels the downside of components costing 4x. Anyone who likes interesting things being hosted on the internet feels the downside of small-scale projects shutting down when they can no longer be sustainably hosted at 4x cost. Anyone who likes interesting consumer hardware feels the downside when 4x cost means there is no longer room for small or new businesses to innovate and find new products to bring to market because nobody can afford them, and when game consoles and other electronics spike in price. Anyone who browses the internet feels the downside of it being >50% bot content. Anyone who uses software feels the downside of "AI" being shoved into everything while performance, security, and reliability of their programs deteriorate to new lows. Anyone who participates in society feels the downside of police, military, lawyers, healthcare professionals, and all manner of other foundations of society outsourcing their life-altering decisions to a hallucination machine.

What have we gained for all this? Not "software developers", I mean "average humans". We gained a bot that can be mildly amusing and that can sometimes provide educational value although that value is diminished because 10% of the time the results are poisoned but you don't know which 10% of the time it's hallucinating which brings the value of the rest of its answers down.

2016 - so, generic upsides of global capitalism, but nothing specific to the AI bubble?

What's your source? The Bureau of labor statistics that is marking most of unemployed people as "not seeking employment" because they aren't walking into workforce centers?

I don't care about inequality, I care about the median.

You can't shift productivity by 10X and expect the rest of the supply/demand equilibrium to stay the same, with you working 10% of the time and sipping drinks on the beach while retaining the same job opportunities and expected salaries.

There will be increased competition for job openings, reductions in real wages, or increased expectations of productivity. Probably some combination of all three.

I could “retire” to a senior level role and run at 10% capacity with zero AI use at a bigco and nobody would know the difference.

This a chamber of weights and measurements comment "I got mine, fuck everyone else".

Doesn't that mean your org could find someone 10% as productive as you and fire you? We seem to ignore that side of things.

Concretely: if you can do 90% of your work with AI, someone else can also do that same work, making you interchangeable unless that 10% is really important.

I think this is partly why it's so hard for people to find jobs right now. Everyone is interchangeable thanks to AI, so skill gives you less of an edge than it did in the past.

> I can do more than I could before as the result of AI

Are you getting paid more or are you just doing more for fun.

Somebody will eventually know the difference.

And then you’re fired.

"The benefits COULD hit by employers reducing everybody's hours."

This will never happen in the USA. Together with UBI.

> I could "retire" to a senior level role and have AI do 90% of my work and nobody would know the difference.

They would notice, and then they would fire 9/10 of the people in your role. If you are unlucky, you get laid off. If you are lucky, you get to botsit full time for the workload of 10 engineers for less pay and no career advancement.

This would last until they figure out how to remove the human from the loop entirely.

  - Company is full of old school engineers who seem to hate AI and will scrutinize every command it runs.  Means that even though we're both 'using' AI, I'm still way more productive.
  - Said engineers have too much inside knowledge of the horrific system they made that management can't possibly get rid of them.  Helps that they're workers-rights minded too.
  - Company has enough revenue to keep up payroll indefinitely.

The delusion of engineers is that finally we have the means to stop compromising on quality to deliver, and fix all the garbage we’ve had to put out rationalizing about “cost-benefit”.

Trouble is management, who has the signature on the bank account which ultimately controls if and when the bailiffs are going to knock down your front door and throw you onto the street.

Management thinks we can now continue putting more, much more, of the same compromised garbage. Cheaper, faster.

Are the new jobs in the room now?

Or perhaps they're somewhere in West Virginia.

Will those new jobs be as good as or better than the jobs that were lost? Will those jobs appear shortly, or will it be decades before they appear? Will the people who lost jobs get free education and training for these jobs that will supposedly appear?

What are these jobs?

I mean for God's sake, people have been saying this shit for 3 years now, but nobody can fathom what those jobs may be.

The only correction will be anyone not in the concentrated wealth part being left out to rot. There is no upside for pretty much anyone posting on hacker news

It's the human superpower!

I’m very on the pro-ai side (check my comment history for proof), but this “ai will give us more free time” logic is seeming more and more patronizing (to be clear, I understand that you are being sarcastic haha).

I was listening to a podcast a couple days ago and Brad Gerstner was on and mentioned that with how AI is boosting productivity that perhaps one member of a household would be able to start staying home from work if they wanted. I shut off the podcast after that (to be fair, the podcast just seemed to be one massive SpaceX IPO pump).

It’s just so divorced from reality and every new advancement is just making *higher expectations for doing more work*.

The unfortunate reality is: Companies that are selling ai will sell that ai will make life easier. Companies that are buying ai will demand more from employees using ai (why else would they buy it?).

Toothpaste making did not completely take over the world's supply of plastic for caps.

A new life awaits you in the off-world colonies! The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.

Less than there will be jobs in Antarctica.

Rovers of Wrath? East of Olympus Mons?

The next great American novels.

At least, Trillions+ I'd guess if I read the project right? :-D

There are actually two separate pricing increases. One was introduced about 1-2 months ago. The one from today was announced at the end of May, without actually revealing new pricing then. The new levels were made public today or yesterday, I believe. And they are much bigger than before, some hikes are well above 200%.

Not reliable, from a buying/availability perspective.

Short: Yes, but of course it depends. Long: I am dealing with a huge amount of fitness related health data which gets aggregated into metrics. If those metrics are wrong, for whatever reason, this is not great.

If you just run some blogs, of course, this is not important.

I’ve had it catch a bunch of errors on borderline memory at home. (Despite the memory passing memtests).

The risk of bit flips is a percentage. The more RAM you have, the greater the likelihood. I have experienced heisenbugs on my 64 GB desktop that I bet were because of random bit flips

ah okay.

but do you know any alternatives to Hetzner for US?

> I start to think that AI might be a net negative on the economy. It consumes an enormous amount of resources, just to keep doing what we did before

Outside of HN, this is all people are seeing. Gamers in particular aren't seeing a benefit. They are being priced out of their hobby. The recent DDLS 5 meme is what people think of when they hear AI.

> Laying off people also doesn't reduce cost as much as it might look like. There is a lot of hidden cost shared by everyone (also the companies that did the lay offs are hit by them). Unemployed people still have to eat and pay rent, and someone is paying for that. They spend less money on services and goods, which affects every company in the end.

Poor companies missing out on consumer money.

It’s funny to think about. One might lose their apartment because they can’t pay rent. Then they’re homeless. What does that mean? As long as they are eating, at least some moeny is circulating. Maybe not as much because of dumpster diving and things like that. Meanwhile what was lost? One less family to pay for rent. Which means that an apartment is vacant. And rent is mostly not productive. It is mostly rent on estate ownership.

The first level of destituness (for renters at least) might not lead to less productive money circulating. But less rent money. Then when that happens to enough people you simply have more vacant apartments. Okay, a little loss of productive circulation since no one is wearing out the floors etc.

I think we are also going to see a lot of new software that is less hungry on compute and RAM than before. Probably first with games not requiring new hardware anymore.

Because the consumers won't upgrade to new hardware as fast as before. People who buy their first gaming PC in 2027 might even get a lower spec in average than people who bought in 2025. So new games might require even lower hardware specs than before, to sell enough copies.

Yes but paying massively inflated prices for compute are not anymore. Even for consumer gear I am being quoted prices that are more than 2x what they were only a year ago (and availability is hard).

But its impact on new hardware costs and replacement costs is not.

A company like Hetzner probably replaces hardware on a 5 year cycle. Maybe shorter. Maybe they could try to stretch that out but they can't avoid the cost of new hardware for very long.

And yet the hardware cost increases caused by AI are not.

> AIslop is of higher quality than devslop on average.

Is it? If by higher quality, you mean commenting properly, sticking to naming conventions etc. I can agree. But to me, AIslop looks like it lacks "intentionality" of code written by devs, no matter how bad they are at naming things and sticking to conventions.

i.e. people who are adequately good at their jobs usually do things for a reason, and they can explain it. Even if you don't find it agreeable, it usually is consistent.

> AIslop is of higher quality than devslop on average.

How did you come to that conclusion? That goes against everything I've heard from people who understand development. Every resource I can find about AI vs non-AI development comes to the exact opposite conclusion you did.

Thanks for the laugh. When has optimization ever been a priority over delivering new features? AI is going to make this problem far worse.

Raspberry Pis are also quite expensive now.

> The only change I have noticed in software since LLMs have hit the mass market is degradation of software quality, not increase in feature releases.

Not fully true. AI is now often used to fix a lot of bugs in old and badly maintained software.

The quality of big and popular software probably decreased a bit, but the quality of niche products probably improved.

> It's pretty clear by now that coding productivity increases by 10-15% with AI.

Completely offtopic for this thread but I can't be the only one that would find this hilarious if it wasn't being said in earnest in every thread.

The only thing that is clear is that measuring programming is just as impossible as it has always been. In all my years of projects they've either been resounding successes or gone down in flames. The difference between good and bad is a difference in kind. Most of the bad ones didn't even know what the hell they were building and built the wrong thing.

Like, the entire idea that some omniscient manager is looking at a thousand timelines and pondering over whether to pick the $11.5M successful one or the $9.5M successful one is literally laughable. Half of them are going to make the Hindenburg look like a bit of a whoopsie and the other half you would lock in sight unseen without a second thought.

Hetzner is actually somewhat reliable, and OVH is not.

OVH is more expensive

> If you serve large files, a CDN may have a very narrow use case where the budgets make sense. If you are already pushing 23 TiB/month, than cloud providers are usually not work the effort. Some rent colocation rack space. =3

Unfortunately I'm needing to run a lot of batch compute jobs (for which the hyperscalers are just insanely expensive - even to have a machine that outclasses a nice laptop becomes silly very rapidly)

I'm considering buying some machines and racking them in a colo but it feels like buying right now is also insane because of current pricing.

Things do tend to end up being a net positive or negative, though. Even if both aspects are present, it doesn't seem far-fetched that someone with hindsight in the future would conclude that it was overall a bad thing in the middle of an energy/heating crisis. That would imo preclude the label 'great achievement', but time will have to tell (or we adjust how we use it before history decides on a judgement)

Pricing was the "selling" point. People chose Hetzner for their affordable prices compared to anybody else.

But when Hetzner is priced like everyone else, it makes it harder to pick them over the giant AWS, GCP, Digital Ocean etc.

Same company that registers my domain as well. But I have readable local copy of all my emails.

1. Inelastic supply. It takes quite a while to increase production.

2. Volatility creates uncertainty, which always increases cost. And we've seen extreme volatility in energy prices and tariffs under the current US administration.

Where can I see the source code for those models?

Agreed. We enjoyed a decade or more or cheap surplus hardware sitting in data centres, after the dot com crash. Rinse and repeat after the AI bubble bursts in x time from now (my forecast is x = 2-3 years).

> the DDR prices will go extremely down (lower than before the bubble)

Why? From what I understand, Ram production is not ramping up. Even if a bubble does pop, I don't think it's even guaranteed to drop to where it was.