The tech monoculture is finally breaking

I could see how many people would assume this, but it’s actually false.

There’s actually a big selection of dedicated audio players that do the job very well now. The battery life and audio quality are extremely good because there’s a niche market for them with a lot of competition.

If you think the iPod software experience in the early 2000s was good then you and I had very different experiences with iTunes during that time.

The resurgence of retro gear has a simpler explanation: Retro is cool. Vintage is cool. Has been for a long time. The reason we’re noticing it now is because the tech things we remember are finally passing that threshold where they go from being outdated to being retro. Just like clothes and styles that went out of fashion but are now retro-cool.

see https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1081115609/from-tumblrcore-to...

That seems like a charitable interpretation to me. Maybe it's just a retro fashion trend that is even at its peak a tiny blip in the market, like back in the 90s when bell bottoms were "in". Give it a few years and we'll see.

Tell me about it. My iPod Classic was in a terminal phase, and since I like to carry my music around instead of streaming arbitrary stuff, I bought a Sony Walkman mp3 (+ other formats) player. It's bad. It takes a long time to boot, the battery life is mediocre, the UI is mainly lists of things, searching always misses tracks or albums, the volume defaults to a pretty low level, and when you increase it, it interrupts you asking if you're sure.

And when I started copying my itunes collection to the "walkman" (it is branded Walkman, but not worthy of the name), it would constantly stop copying. The included software was useless, and wouldn't copy a single track, giving up after 5 to 10 minutes of scanning. I had to write a Python script to overcome problems with long directory and file names and copy them to the proper directory.

Worst of all: there's a very loud click when you stop a track (using wired headphones). It's as if they never even used it.

What the what?!? There's tons of DAPs on the market, and more than a few that would put "an iPod had in the early 2000s (or even a Zune)" to shame.

And Pokémon cards because this generation has less ability to afford big purchases like a house or having a child

https://bemighty.com/

wat. I'm curious how an ipod from 2000 is better than, for example, the Fiio jm21. It's worse in pretty much every possible way, other than the ipod might be appealing to a certain kind of 'old man shakes fist at clouds' type of user.

Linux is still not user friendly enough. Products from two decades ago are more user friendly than modern "mainstream" disros.

Look at Matrix and other OSS that wants to be mainstream. It's got awful UI/UX. And it's never taken off.

Gimp is an ugly beast with a bad name. Nobody's using that unless they're a Linux nerd.

I do see lots of people building retro game collections. Analogue 3D was a huge hit. Massive demand. It's sold out instantly five times. Palmer Luckey has a company building a similar product, and that's also sold out.

The clothing stores sell cassette tapes and vinyl. iPod and Zune are venerated.

My wife is Gen Z and into mainstream culture. She's all about retro. Polaroid, Instax, 2000's era digital cameras. The low end consumer digital camera I bought for $100 or so in 2004 is now selling for more than that. These things are wildly popular.

They're even hunting down old disposable one-use film cameras to pop off the lenses.

In any case, my wife knows this stuff. She doesn't know what Linux is.

It's simpler than that - retro is an (a e s t h e t i c)

Those of us who are Zillenials, Gen Z, or Gen Alpha were still in elementary school or not around when those products were mainstream.

It's the same way you saw Millenial hipsters wearing flannel, drinking PBR, started classical rock inspired indie bands like "Clap Your Hands and Say Yeah", renovating abandoned lofts in bRoOklYn, and making 70s and 80s references in Venture Bros.

Most HNers skew old [0] - late 30s to early 40s at the youngest based on most of the references I've seen - so to you guys the iPod or N64 evokes a similar emotion response to what a Nintendo Switch, Bucket Hats, and SnK will in the 2035-45 period.

Nostalgia marketing is the name of the game now [1][2][3].

[0] - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5DlTexEXxLQ

[1] - https://www.uschamber.com/co/good-company/launch-pad/busines...

[2] - https://www.hbs.edu/recruiting/insights-and-advice/blog/post...

[3] - https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/how-to-retain-customers

And then manually open Gmail to check mail, manually open Instagram when I feel like checking notifications, etc.

It’s such a better experience when you’re opening an app because you want to, and not because a notification is baiting you.

It's also possible to make an Android device ask for every permission, including notifications, when a new app is installed. So it's also easy to deny most apps access to notifications, address book, camera, etc. I think it's the default on current Samsung phones, for instance.

I use an Oura ring because of this. I want 1) no notifications 2) passive health monitoring 3) no subscription

I was early enough to be grandfathered into no subscription. The app itself gets worse all the time as they try to do provide higher level guidance and make the data harder to see. But it still serves its purpose.

If I had to pay the monthly subscription I might would probably forgo the category altogether.

The most WTF thing was when Airpods got a firmware update that worsened the noise cancellation, because some patent troll sued them saying it violated some patent...

I agree with a lot of what you said, but isn't it wild to think that such a limited device would likely be more expensive than the do-everything Apple Watch that includes the health features among a myriad of others? Selling perhaps in the thousands instead of the zillions, the development costs would be amortized over such a small user base it would be an incredibly niche product. It often falls to us techies to figure out if we can hack an acceptable solution out of the affordable mainstream product.

A lot of the Graphene/modscene folks use two phones (one cert and with minimal apps and the modded phone). I think it will become more popular with techies unless google goes fully closed source

It works for me. I know whatever is on my phone will be there when I get back to it and in the meantime I know if I'm getting an urgent message or not.

The complete opposite to this is Apple’s new UI for the iPhone. It’s so damn buggy I thought I accidentally clicked on Beta Testing!

… this has to be THE worst update thing they’ve pushed since forcing everyone to listen to U2

You could probably find the same with bike computers. Established brands that have a fairly predictable customer base tend to continue to focus on the thing that they do well. If you are having to chase a market that doesn't really exist, you find half baked features that speak to an idea, but often don't actually deliver on it.

For an amazing example of that last, look at how Amazon is destroying their echo market. If they just focused on "voice activated radio and timers," the device would be very different from the "we are trying desperately to make a new market for our smart assistant."

And here I am each morning having to manually enforce sync multiple times to have my fucking Garmin watch sleep data show up in my iPhone Garmin app. I love this watch (Instinct 2) but it’s far from bug free even in its most fundamental functions like data sync

If a company develops a monopoly in virtually any part of your life these days, and if a $1 network connected SoC can be added to their product, they can start abusing their position within a matter of months. The standard playbook is some combination of advertisements, notifications, and subscription charges (sometimes for stuff that used to be free!). None of those things are met with enthusiasm from consumers. But if the consumer has no other choice, it's almost a guarantee that the business will add them eventually.

Lock in and abuse. This isn't a new business model, we've just watched it spread from being a Microsoft PC thing in 1990s IT departments to pretty much everywhere now. (Speaking broadly about MSFT's business strategy back then, but they were also literally the first ones to try and shove unwanted Internet ads down your throat by streaming Active Desktop Channels on top of your wallpaper in 1997...!)

This creates a market where quality and craftsmanship and customer service reduce competitiveness and eat into profits. We've empowered and optimized a market for the enshittifiers, and they're damn good at what they do.

Heck, my big complaint on here for a while was Google managed to break the timer voice functionality on my Pixel, my second most used function after playing music. They broke it long enough and I had enough meals ruined/issues that I moved to something else. My phone is less used for useful things than it was 10 years ago purely because companies have made it not worth using.

https://repebble.com/

But what he’s onto is the thing that unifies all these weird little niches: they’re motivated by a bone deep annoyance with the most popular big tech offerings. None of these groups are all that big, but if you add them together there’s something here.

The author paints a nice picture but there's a lot of wishful thinking and projection there.

To the first point, they've sold at least 2M pairs, and are reported scaling production to handle up to 10M units per year.

To the second point, do you believe that all or most of those 2M people using it for those purposes? Or to take videos of travel, music festivals, etc.

Lots of companies are rushing into this space, so you kind of have to legislate, or choose to view competition in this space, even amongst 3 major players, as as slightly preferable to competition amongst just 2.

I know there are alternatives from more trustworthy companies but haven't looked into them in depth.

I have a Meta Quest 2 from half a decade ago. It's old, but still feels like a mature gaming device (though relegated to more of an occasional fitness device for me).

Sure, it's failed to be anything more (commercial, education, media), but perhaps it's not fated to be for simple entertainment, in which case it's still an interesting new category. And I think the entry price point is like half that of a PS5?

> I don't know a single person who actually owns a Meta wearable device or a 3D printer. Isn't Meta actually shifting their focus away from metaverse?

I think the Ray Ban partnership is consistent with their shift away from the metaverse. The grandiose visions are put on ice, while they shift towards a fashion-accessory with a camera and audio.

Young people seem to be very into 3D printing. My father runs a photography store and a steady portion of the customer base is high schoolers requesting 3D printed models of things they've found online. I presume they'll own their own 3D printers in the future.

> Operating systems that are actively hostile to their users (Windows and OSX).

Never been a better time to give Linux a try. The days of fighting with audio drivers for 3 days after the install are largely in the past

> Everyone trying to shove AI down your throat

There is some backlash against this. SaaS used it to justify price increases, but ironically AI may make it more difficult for them to sustain their very high per seat pricing model

> * No real disruption or competition in the browser space. It will be a long time before Ladybird will be usable.

I still use Firefox for now. But they, unfortunately, have to own their bad decisions.

> You don't own anything anymore. Even building your own PC seems like it will become a thing of the past given how price are rising.

I do worry about this, though less from a cost standpoint, which tend to be cyclical. Deeply embedding and integrating everything does come with some advantages that make DIY builds more difficult to justify outside of seeking peak performance. Though computers like the Framework are actively trying to push against that for some segment of the market.

I whish I could say the same :p I just bought another 3d printer and have no place to put it - I have another 3 active printers in my home office. And yes, I keep telling myself its for "work reasons", but its mostly for hobby stuff.

Not exactly true. Sent from my Librem 5.

"I'm tied of Apple converting everything to services so I'll eschew the Apple Watch in favor of an analog watch and an Oura ring that requires a subscription."

"I'm tired of distracting notifications so I'm getting Meta Ray-Ban AR glasses."

What I find odd is that much of the rationale for these moves is completely absent from the article.

Why is Linux growing in popularity?

People are sick of being spied on and being manipulated for profit.

Why are people attracted to analog?

People are sick of being spied on and being manipulated for profit.

Why are people looking at offline or self hosted experiences?

People are sick of being spied on and being manipulated for profit.

I don't think the OP wants to acknowledge that fact because it paints him as a technology hipster rather than someone taking back their autonomy from corporations. He's saying "Look at me, I'm an individual because I choose to have a different set of companies spy on me than you do."

The other striking thing to me is that the list is also completely devoid of any sense of morality. He might be using Linux but he's actively spitting in the face of Opensource by choosing a Bambu printer.

Platform exclusives seem to be rare (outside of Nintendo). I have an xbox (which I'm told is the wrong console), but I can play nearly everything a PS5 can. Most major titles seem to be very cross platform (PC, Xbox, PS5, and sometimes Nintendo). If anything, they stagger release dates, not access.

Steam's market share has held relatively steady at 75%. And in fairness, it does not seem like Epic is trying at all to improve their product, so I'm not sure they're deserving of more right now. GoG continues to have ts cult following (I had never heard of it until recently, but now see references to it frequently).

And it seems to be easier to game on Linux (and even Mac) than in the past few years.

I have no way of verifying this, but Perplexity states that ~5% of Steam games are exclusives. Have they exerted monopolistic pressure on the market in other ways?

Many of these purchases are replacements for 10+ year old devices (a Canon 6D, an absolutely brain-dead iRobot, a smaller hard drive that finally filled up, etc.).

I’ve made very few tech purchases over the past several years. Part of that was a general lack of inspiration inside Apple’s ecosystem stranglehold, and I tend to hold onto their hardware for a long time anyway (I’m hoping to skip from M1 straight to M6 or later)

A desire to spend less time purely in the software domain. Hardware can be fun. I originally studied electrical engineering but ended up spending all of my career in software; the 3D printer ties into a few side projects I’m working on, with mixed success.

A preference for narrow, purpose-driven devices. I now use the Android phone for "serious" things with minimal distractions, and the iPhone for everything else. And if Apple or Google ever become untenable, I have some optionality (and this is my first non-Apple phone since my Blackberry).

The programmable lights seemed kind of unavoidable. If you want lighting where you can change the color, the bundled software and ecosystem bloat is largely unavoidable.

The mechanical watches are tied to travel and circumstance: a Casio from Japan, a Mondaine from Switzerland, and the Interstellar Hamilton Murph as a gift. I’d honestly be happy with two or three watches, but they have a way of finding me. I do tend to match watch to outfit color, which admittedly opens the door for a few more options.

Open models are a great proxy (and scare tactic) to what we can expect. As they are already released, and won't change, you'll get basically the same capabilities in the future for current or decreasing cost (with normal hardware improvements trends). The current SotA for open models (dsv3, glm, minimax, devstral, etc) are at or above the mini versions of top labs (haikus, -mini, etc). With the exception of gemini 3.0-flash I would say. So, barring any black swan events in Taiwan, we can expect to be enough pressure to keep the prices at those points, or lower in the future. And we can expect the trend of open to chase top labs to continue. The biggest "gain" from open models is that they can't go backward. We can only stagnate or improve, on all fronts (capabilities, sizes, cost, etc).

But isn't Apple (the most egregious example IMO) losing a slew of cases in many jurisdictions (not just EU)? I think the consensus is very much that they've overplayed their hand and the bill is coming due

Yes, but I think the pressure is external. RCS brings many iMessage capabilities cross platform. As adoption increases I think the power and influence of iMessage will wane.

Have you thought of installing Rockbox on it? It made mine instantly better.

Are we really concerned about an Essilor-Luxottica monopoly? Is there lock-in, shady dealings, etc? Can't you just buy sunglasses from other brands (or brandless glasses)?

Regarding Meta, they are playing a role in shifting us from monoculture (or two player markets) to three or more players.

Meta may be ahead of the pack, but they'll be joined by Google and Apple soon. Apple's poor treatment of their partners through the App Store really damaged the Apple Vision Pro launch, which is a good thing.

One does not need to love Meta to see the value in bringing more players into a given market. We deserve more than Apple vs. Google across all of our decisions.

The surveillance is unfortunately inevitable at this point. Cameras are cheap and are everywhere. You're never more than a few feet from a multi-camera cellphone. I don't see any way around this short to national legislation restricting their use.

There's also, of course, the aggressive A16Z Art Deco rebranding. But we can put that one to the side.

It's just the slow swing of the pendulum away from the AirSpace aesthetic that was the modern interpretation of mid-century modern that came out of the early 2000s.

Author is a hipster.

This author is European, even if posting from the US.

There are classes of items that are throwaway, but bring other kinds of value (like all of the soldering kits I used to buy, that were basically garbage once assembled but were very educational and steered my career in a certain direction).

There are classes of items that increase the volume of e-waste over time. Dedicated purpose driven devices (like e-readers). And there's a compelling alternative: Apple makes very good stuff. You can buy a Mac and an iPhone and keep them for up to a decade (with a battery replacement in-between). You can use that iPhone to many things (like reading books). But I think the real costs of that consolidation aren't worth it, and that anyone growing up in that environment won't be curious or inspired about tech the way I was.

And there are items that are throwaway because they're cheap and won't last. These I usually avoid. The ASUS, I'm finding out, was questionable, though purchased with good intentions - Macbook like solid aluminum chassis, etc. But the Leica (actually 2nd hand), Apple stuff, even the Ray Bans are all pretty durable.

I actually see a lot more "throwaway" tech, and culture around it in Asia than I do in the US. Things are pretty conservative over here for the majority of people.

> the way I was excited by the N64 or the early web.

This is part of the reason I've been buying old, physical games. It brings some clarity and focus that I frankly find difficult scrolling through an endless digital library. Something about the mere act of inserting a CD or cartridge subconsciously silences distractions and feels like a real commitment rather than a passive activity.

It may be more of a callback to the past than the future, but I think there's a reasonable chance the future will look similar, with a wave of new products that seek to do similar things and evoke the same reactions. Time will tell.

> If the only future we can envision is a curated list of retro-gadgets and subscriptions, we have lost the plot.

Hate subscriptions. Left Adobe because of them. Will leave 1Password when they finally end my one-and-done 1Password 7 purchase. Don't use Microsoft Live for my Xbox. Spent years manually copying iPhone photos weekly to avoid the Apple storage subscription (this one I've admitted defeat on). The only subscription product on that list is an Oura Ring, for which I'm grandfathered into a non-subscription plan; would give it up otherwise.

If the predicted AI-driven downward pressure on per seat pricing plays out in SaaS, there's reason to believe consumer subscriptions would likely be under pressure as well.

The below purchases are all durable things that should last at least 5 years. An E-Junk list would be riddled with IOT, and devices that forcibly ratcheted tech in ("smart water bottle", etc).

The Leica, Matic and Kindle replace 10+ year old devices.

The Oura replaces itself, with a heavily diminished battery. The hard drive replaces something barely half the size.

The Android is to create a minimal distraction device with only select apps, while slowly weening myself out of the Apple ecosystem stranglehold.

The TRMNL is a side-project, to build some custom code for. The Bambu is used for hobby projects at least weekly and frankly should have been purchased years ago.

The ASUS was a misadventure back into dual boot Windows / Linux after 15 years on Mac. Demoted from a CUDA dev machine to general use second computer.

The Ray Ban Metas only really make an appearance when I travel, but when I do, I'm very glad to have them. Provides a very different perspective than a handheld camera or smartphone, especially in dense areas (walking through crowded outdoor markets, etc)

We'll see!

It's also not like the problem is the audio equipment itself, because the problem most people have is with phones removing 3.5mm and being theoretically unable to charge (with cable) and listen to music at the same time. I think it's another example of a false tech culture war that the original article wants to exist.

Now, I wish we could go to 2 USB-C ports instead of holding on to 3.5mm. Not all DACs are created equal...

A Mondaine purchased from a Swiss railway station ($400)

Not strictly mechanical, but a Casio A168WA, purchased in Tokyo ($25)

Disagreements on the article are most welcome (and encouraged!), but should probably stick to content therein.

The US is not really among the countries that likes tech "toys". The number of things you can buy in BestBuy, for instance, doesn't compare to a trip to Shenzen, Tokyo, HK, etc. Those items are far more likely to be throwaway than the things listed in my article (most of which are high quality and I expect can last a decade).

> I think it's part of why the tech bros consistently over-estimate the relvance, pace and world-changing potential of technology like LLMs

I think the opposite is happening. A year ago it was sacrilege to state that an LLM would not lead to AGI. Today that's pretty uncontroversial to say that and most discussions center around 2nd order impacts of current capabilities on employment, education, etc.

> Technology does change the world eventually, but the latest pair of smart goggles or a slightly better camera on your personal surveillance device does not.

You can judge the product uncharitably, but I prefer to judge the outcome. Shared with my family many travel videos from my Rayban Metas. Provides a much more intimate perspective, like you're actually at the Swiss Alps, which just isn't a perspective you get from a smart phone. And this was not an upgrade, per se, it was me entering a new category that simply didn't exist before. My other cameras are not recent (Canon 6D - 12 years old, iPhone 12 - 5 years old).

Will need one to compliment the A168

Nobody’s making the tubes any more.

It’s bit like cassette decks - there’s only one manufacturer left and the mechanisms they build are not up to the quality of the ones from the 90s, and a revival is not enough to bootstrap manufacture back to economic viability, it’s very likely a blip.

He then followed that they were investigating whether they could build a modern CRT. I can't immediately find the except, but I had previously watched the interview

Media has not been in a healthy state for quite some time. For a long time that had little to nothing to do with tech. With streaming these days and tech companies buying studios, that's unfortunately no longer the case.

I didn't call that out directly in the article, but I agree there's cause for concern and there's probably good reason to strike down the HBO acquisition.

> What I think the author is referring to are the minor concessions Apple has made in some territories, mainly the EU

Government moves slowly, and I think a lot of it is still in flight, but Apple is fielding cases globally.

Apple pay was hit with anti-trust cases in Korea and Japan. Epic has had success against Apple, and they've been ruled in contempt of court for not adhering the verdict (with the CFO referred to the DOJ for possible criminal prosecution).

The EU has been the most heavy-handed. I think these are just the beginning

> Anti-competitive moats are still alive and well, and growing larger.

For the last few years big tech has been more cautious. Very few acquisitions (though an insidious loophole was created in which founders are acquihired, license their IP and then effectively kill their old company). So that'll require another look.

> What a silly article. I don't understand how anyone can consider the current state of the tech industry "fun"

Well, I'm having fun! And that's good enough for me ;)

> What I think the author is referring to are the minor concessions Apple has made in some territories, mainly the EU. And even there, they're using every dirty trick at their disposal to do the absolute bare minimum.

It's not Apple specifically, not even a little bit. All of this is a consequence of one piece of legislation called the Digital Markets Act and it applies to everyone that is defined as the "digital gatekeeper" according to that piece of legislation, but the exact steps they need to take are not written in the law and are decided on a case-by-case basis. Such malicious compliance tricks are normal on a short timescale, but on a large-enough timescale they get ironed out and we all get to live in a less monopolistic world as a consequence.

You can join that reality too! One properly thought out piece of legislation can turn the whole thing around.

> Anti-competitive moats are still alive and well, and growing larger. It's curious that the author is positive about "AI", when that is the ultimate moat builder right now. Nobody can basically touch the largest players, since they have the most resources and access to mind-bogglingly large datacenters.

If they become large enough to matter, they will also be designated as "digital gatekeepers", and then the steps they need to do to open up will be decided. They are not that large (within the European Union) as of yet.