De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

My money is on the last possibility. Honestly that might be the best outcome, even if it's the riskiest. A nuclear-armed Ukraine never would've been invaded. A nuclear-armed Taiwan will never be invaded. A nuclear-armed Canada will never be invaded. At this point, honestly I'd heartily endorse giving Denmark a nuclear triad of their own.

> The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea

Russia already had several other ports on the Black Sea, so it's not clear to me why they'd need to invade Ukrainian territory to get one extra.

> Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders.

They've already voted three other Russia-bordering countries into NATO. They were practically falling over themselves to add Finland (along with Sweden)[1]

> The process in the Bundestag was "extremely fast," DW's political correspondent Nina Haase said.

> Haase said, citing unnamed sources, that Germany had intended to become the first country to ratify the accession, but other countries were faster. "But nevertheless, the signal remains the same... [Germany] is firmly behind the idea of Finland and Sweden joining NATO," she added.

You make the point that the US is insecure about any other system being successful, I think there's a case to be made that Russia similarly couldn't tolerate a prosperous democratic Ukraine sitting right next door and embarrassing them. You could also argue that, materially, Ukraine has natural resources that Russia just wants to steal.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-approves-finland-and-sweden-na...

Agreed on all points but this. This is just factually wrong. Ukraine formally declared its intention to pursue NATO membership which was accepted by the NATO council.

The most significant early push occurred at the Bucharest Summit (April 2008). Ukraine (along with Georgia) requested a Membership Action Plan (MAP) - the standard preparatory program for aspiring members. NATO's declaration welcomed Ukraine's aspirations and stated that "these countries will become members of NATO". Ukraine's parliament repealed its non-bloc status and amended its constitution to enshrine irreversible pursuit of NATO (and EU) membership as a national goal. Then, NATO officially listed Ukraine as an aspiring member.

In the Vilnius Summit, NATO even declared that "Ukraine’s future is in NATO" and its path is "irreversible".

I think this is the most important and crucial part of what you've said in here.

If you look, East germany former communists states were the biggest voters in favor of the AfD: Saxony and Thuringia. What I understand is that the left wing parties of today's society have forgotten about the 'conservative' socialism that focused on providing good education, food, housing and employment for the general population. Something that was always incorporated on conservative parties, like the CDU in Germany.

Following the disastrous political consequences of Merkel's 2015 immigration crisis, AfD entered the game with the fury from the German population. The alliance of the conservative CDU with the AfD makes a lot of sense.

I may be insane, but I feel there is always some kind of collective Jungian aura or desire among the general population, especially among the elders, for sane, conservative policies to control society and make life bearable. The writings of Jung are quite telling of this phenomenon.[1]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mass_Psychology_of_Fascism

As far as "who set up the US empire, in all its complexity?", I'd argue for the 4 guys I named in my other comment, but your list might differ. And if you're just interested in the dollar system per se, I'd probably go with Harry Dexter White, who strangely enough turned out to be a Soviet spy.

Oh, and if you want a pretty clear analogy from Bismarck's system to earlier US monetary history: Benjamin Strong got the Federal Reserve System up and running and figured out a bunch of the right tricks, but he died in 1928 without getting his successors up to speed on how to run things. They failed miserably in next couple years. Bad timing!

If China signals that it is changing its attitude on its currency, that it wants to be the reserve currency and establish a consumer economy, it wouldn't take much for people to shift these days. Nobody needs to adopt the Renminbi 100% right away, they can transition to multiple currencies for a while as a hedge against the US, and the situation will evolve. Dedollarization won't happen in a month or a year, it will be a multi-year process once it kicks off. But once it kicks off, it will be because of such a loss of confidence in the US that it probably won't be possible to stop it.

Any advice you don't understand is, of course, useless.

Any advice you do understand but doesn't fit into your mental model will just get rejected.

“I always pass on good advice. It is the only thing to do with it. It is never of any use to oneself.” ― Oscar Wilde

Although certain "advice" is actually SOP, in that case it is good to know (like stop, drop, and roll).

(And if that was how the user posed the question, I'd be concerned that priming the chat with "is it true that..." biased the response towards "yes, it's true".)

    - Wait, WTF? Really??
    - But but but it's a *chatbot*, not an authority 
    - We're doomed

No one cares that everyone wants to spend their dollars. They care whether the seller takes them, and is forced to take them at the same value as more cherished coin.

There is no functional mechanism to enforce this internationally - we already see the value of the dollar declining.

It's entrenched, so I expect the withdrawal to be relatively slow for the same reason you don't rip the bandaid off - you avoid a lot of pain. But there is nothing stopping the bandaid from coming off.

When the Dutch for example did try to go off a metallic standard it was essentially a last ditch effort as they were completely broke. The US on the other hand had the advantage of still controlling global trade/it's military, liquid markets and the petrodollar system. The dollar's floating exchange rate also served as a release valve, allowing devaluation to occur gradually over the decade that followed versus all at once.

Re a dollar collapse I see a gradual shift towards a more multipolar world with no clear singular reserve currency and no currency which eclipses the dollar as more likely than a collapse or eclipse. For example where the Americas still primarily transact in dollars, the Yuan becomes an increasing percentage of belt and road trade, and the Euro in it's sphere.

[1]https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rise-and-fall-paper-money-yua...

And there isn't any "hope" involved in bitcoin transactions. Connecting to the peer to peer network is super simple (way, way easier than creating a brokerage or bank account, and no ID or approval is required). Miners will pick up your transaction (and yes fees will help speed that up, as with any financial transaction) and it will be included in a block. Bitcoin has been doing this non-stop, flawlessly since 2009.

Yeah, super convenient. Well worth it. I'll just go with gold bars on me to the market to buy lettuce.

We had the post-WWII optimism and then the post-Cold War optimism clouding the judgment of an entire country.

I kind of wish we'd been more curmudgeonly like the Europeans.

I do think that the US was not "doing just fine", clearly, because our society was not healthy or educated or sustainable enough to avoid our present fate. It's easy to blame 'them' for all our woes, when we collectively made 'them'. Obviously we can't prevent every idiot and psychopath from existing, but we've certainly failed some 30% of our population if they fall for this crap. And this is the price we pay.

Lowering interest rates to create inflation is literally one of the core tenants of the Federal Reserve:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/center-for-inflation-research/i...

Cars were absolutely incubated by Seoul. In part through drastic trade protections.

In the late teens, China was dominating all of these industries.

Under policies of the Biden administration, these industries were growing domestically in the US and we were increasing our share of the global market.

Over the last year those domestic industries have been destroyed. They are barely surviving and have stopped rapidly expanding. All gains made against China's dominance in these technologies has been lost, and then some.

Plus, with global warming, this may be the last chance for the Alpine hunters to shine.

There's a certain stigma especially in Germany caused by the WW2 and the the leadership has been complacent to rely on Bretton Woods agreement. But as we're seeing now the geopolitics are doing a 180 degree turnaround and given these circumstances I expect sooner or later Europe will collectively understand the utmost importance to com together and to regrow and redevelop the military to support independence and not having to bow down to any master in the East or int he West.

There is a strong political and cultural foundation in geographic Europe for the political EU: some exemplary giants/EU co-architects:

Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman

European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) Schuman Declaration (1950) [It is only right that the R. Schuman Roundabout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Schuman_Roundabout Rue houses the European quarter in Brussels.]

Konrad Adenauer

Promoted reconciliation with France pro-European

Alcide De Gasperi

Integrated Italy into Western Europe Advocated supranational institutions

Paul-Henri Spaak

institutional designer, key role in the Treaties of Rome (1957) helped design the European Economic Community (EEC) Advocated supranational institutions

Walter Hallstein

1st President, European Commission. Built EC into powerful, independent institution Championed the supremacy of European law

Altiero Spinelli

Wrote the Ventotene Manifesto (while imprisoned by Fascists) Advocated a federal Europe

Winston Churchill

A paradoxical but crucial figure: called for a “United States of Europe” (1946 speech) Influenced Europe’s post-war direction despite UK distance

François Mitterrand

Drove Maastricht Treaty with Helmut Kohl Pushed for the € Symbolized Franco-German partnership

Helmut Kohl

Franco-German friendship exemplified by Mitterand-Kohl personal friendship "Architect of modern Europe" German reunification Key figure behind the EU and monetary union

It's ironic that the name "U.S.E." (United States of Europe) was first proposed by a Brit, alas a smart one, and I'm sure Sir Winston Churchill would have had the oratory abilities to convince his countrymen that his idea had merit, but he did not live to see it. The Federation of Europe or United States of Europe is the logical end-point of the joint vision of all these foundational leaders.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/what-to-...

If you are in a country or area with a large Chinese population, you can usually pay easily in RMB with Alipay.

If you use Visa and Mastercard, you are subject to US regulations, sanctions, and embargoes. Many alternative payment processor exist, PIX in Brazil, UPI in India, etc.

There are several systems in the EU: Wero, Bizum, BLIK It is urgent that Europeans coordinate to ensure the interoperability of these systems and reduce the influence of Visa and Mastercard.

In the event of conflict, this will be the first service to be cut in order to disrupt European countries.

The US already use it for coercing European politicians : https://www.courthousenews.com/eu-strongly-condemns-us-sanct...

But more importantly, you can buy a lot of stuff from the factory of the world. Which is why a lot of countries don't mind holding the RMB. Just not enough for it to become a reserve currency, and certainly no one wants it to become the petroyuan.

https://www.imf.org/en/topics/special-drawing-right

EDIT: by "like the US" I mean federalization. This video explains it well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnarX3HPruA

In June 2025, 56% of people in Great Britain thought it was the wrong decision:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-po...

It's hard to imagine this number would be going down after recent events like USA suddenly threatening arbitrary new tariffs on the UK.

I can't see how, since the end of habeas corpus, you can claim legal stability.

Your leader is World renowned for reneging on debts and is demanding bribes for companies to operate.

Isn't borrowing through the roof to pay for things like your stasi?

Daily those stasi are murdering and disappearing people seemingly attempting to foment an excuse to escalate the violence.

I don't know how that knife edge can look anything like stable to you.

Past returns are not indicative of future performance

Source?

I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth

It’s bad enough that America’s foreign policy lately swings wildly every four years. More recently, it’s been acting aggressive toward allies, and making very strange and unpredictable moves.

The USA’s tariff policies are, frankly, utterly insane. Yes, I do mean the tariffs are irrational and incoherent. The approach to the tariffs has been overly aggressive. They’ve been changing almost daily, at times. Now, tariffs are specifically a thing that must be stable and predictable on a multi-year horizon. This must be, at least, off-putting to other governments, and to any companies wishing to do business in or adjacent to the USA.

Monkeying with the Fed is dangerous and basically unprecedented. This is going to make people nervous because it marks the end of an era of stability in monetary policy. We may be at the start of a new era where interest rates, much like the tariffs, change frequently for bad reasons or for no reason at all. Who can say?

And THAT is the problem.

America was never a stable country. That 250 years includes:

* A decade of chaos under the impotent Articles of Confederation.

* The deliberately engineered election of George Washington to create the illusion of political stability, a reign which only ended because George stepped down voluntarily.

* An immediate constitutional crisis the moment a competitive election happened, causing the election of a President and Vice President from opposing political parties (imagine a Harris - Trump presidency). The ensuing chaos resulted in SCOTUS unilaterally declaring itself the final arbiter of the law.

* The Thomas Jefferson presidency, which in many ways is the alpha release of Trump.

* The Civil War, started specifically because the losing faction of slaveholders was angry at losing, and ending with the losing faction losing so hard the counter rolled back into flawless victory. They surrendered, then assassinated the President and got his party to give up on everything he stood for.

* Economy-destroying Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which are basically what Trump is doing now.

* A spectacular near-miss in which the country's business elites attempted to assassinate a Progressive president and only failed because the Marine they selected as their Hitleresque dictator ratted them out.

* Widespread civil unrest deliberately created to force America to reckon with its racist past and undo what the South had managed to convince the North to allow them to do after Reconstruction.

* The Richard Nixon presidency, which in many ways is the beta release of Trump.

* Too many foreign invasions to count.

In the entire history of America I can think of maybe 3 brief moments of political stability that weren't outright engineered fantasies. The two that are relevant to modern times are the 1950s and the 1990s. Both of these were the result of America winning a war of conquest.

Finance is as rational under the hood as the Vatican's books.

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

...

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

...

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.

Congress's authority in this area was upheld by the foundational case McCulloch v. Maryland in 1819. The Federal Reserve System was created in 1913 by Congress via the Federal Reserve Act.

There's no serious argument that the Federal Reserve is unconstitutional. People who espouse this are ignorant of the facts and law, or are either quacks or have paid heed to the arguments are quacks.

federal reserve is not government... that's kinda the entire point)

its why current US admin is being so butthurt about it, it's not under its control.

The government can print money and inject into the system. Some people have money so they continue to buy stuff but maybe at a slower pace or less amount. Things also can get expensive but it is not a total collapse.

So the mass printing of money meant that banks didn't collapse.

It also meant that a fucktonne of cash went into the hands of the uber rich.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00941...

* housing market was already quite bad before covid (see sibling comment)

* Savings rates have hovered around 5% for almost 25+ years - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

what would have been the correct actions in that situation?

really the government should tax in good times.

and

spend in bad times.

and be a counter weight to private sector

https://ibb.co/qMynfBBW

1. Our post WW2 neocolonial activity and the current admins push to sort of blatantly get control over Venezuela and Greenland.

2. Our WW2 manufacturing and export based economy that made us wealthy. Is similar to the current admins push to reform us from importers to exporters using tariffs and rebuilding manufacturing (at least on the surface the execution of this has been terrible).

You're hitting the nail on the head. Metalness didn't matter. It was competition in money supplies (and strength of private property).

The fact that a banker in Italy could finance (or not) a war by Great Britain is what restrained governments. Same as in the 1990s, the bond market was king.

The historical record simply does not support the hypothesis that metal-based economies are more peaceful or inflate less than modern fiat-based ones. I'm open to revising that opinion if someone has re-run the data. But everything I've seen comes from blogs that start with the conclusion, itself reached from assumptions from first principles that rarely contemplate how armies were actually financed in antiquity. (Hint: they take your shit. Marketing campaigns sharing the martial term isn't a coincidence. If you're a general in the olden times, you got wealthy through your commission because your army took the enemy's shit. If you needed help getting there, you paid a 'friendly' visit to your nobles.)

"In the second century, a modius of wheat (approximately nine liters), during normal times, had sold for ½ Denarius…. the same modius of wheat sold in 335 AD for over 6000 denarii, and in 338 AD for over 10,000" [1].

Note that inflation can also occur with zero debasement if the economy around the fixed money supply collapses. This happened in Rome when Pompey and later Augustus were trashing trade routes. It may have even led to the collapse of India's ancient democracies.

> there were serious political repercussions for it

There weren't. The state historically borrowed from the hilt of the sword. Economic collapse constrained kings and emperors. Not politics.

[1] https://etedge-insights.com/featured-insights/analysis/how-h...

Why exactly do you think Germany is a non-nuclear weapon state?

if you don't think Trump is a departure from norms you aren't paying enough attention

I'll read up on the Whig party, though if you have ledes that'd be good to start with, I'd love some links.

About 40-50% are in support, so the parent's accurate. That roughly matches the political divide across the states.